Why Approach Shots Might Be Costing You Shots

You striped the tee shot.

The sound was clean, the trajectory was perfect, and now you’re standing in the middle of the fairway with exactly 100 yards to the pin. No wind. No trees. Perfect number. Wedge in hand, confidence high. This, right here,  is why you grind on the range. Why you chart yardages. Why you obsess over gapping and spin rates and trajectory windows. This is your shot.

You go through your routine, feel the rhythm, and let it fly.

And… it misses. Maybe not by much, but it’s short-sided. Or it catches the slope. Or you land 35 feet left and two-putt for a par that feels suspiciously like a bogey in disguise. You walk off slightly confused, maybe a little annoyed, thinking the same thing so many of us do:

“I should’ve made birdie.”

But should you have?

This exact moment, 100 yards in the fairway, feels like a gift. The mythical “scoring zone.” And yet, even for the best amateur players in the world, it rarely plays out that way.

Arccos Insight:

• Scratch players from 100 yards in the fairway are more likely to make bogey than birdie.

That’s not a dramatic outlier. That’s reality. And if it holds true for scratch players, what does it mean for the rest of us?

Somewhere along the way, we started believing that proximity equals opportunity. That if we’re close to the green, we should convert. But golf isn’t a game of perfect. And approach shots can expose our expectations more than our technique.

Because here’s what better players know: success from this range isn’t about hitting it stiff. It’s about avoiding disaster. From 125 yards, scratch golfers gain strokes simply by hitting the green and finishing inside 45 feet. That’s it. No flag hunting. No heroics. Just solid, centred golf.

It’s when you start trying to be perfect, taking on pins and chasing numbers, that things go sideways. And if you’re a mid-handicap player? The stakes are even higher. From just 90 yards out, a 10-index golfer only makes birdie 6% of the time. And makes bogey or worse? A staggering 36%.

So that wedge you felt good about? It’s a statistical landmine if you let expectation override execution.

None of this is meant to discourage you. It’s meant to help you see and recalibrate what “good” looks like. A 25-foot leave is not a miss, it’s a win. A green in regulation is not the minimum, it’s the foundation. Birdies come from consistency, not precision. Par is a powerful thing.

There’s a quiet strength in playing smart. In aiming for the middle of the green. In accepting 30 feet instead of gambling for 10. Better players aren’t perfect, they’re disciplined. They respect their patterns. They know where strokes are lost and how to avoid bleeding them out.

So the next time you’ve got wedge in hand, middle of the fairway, and adrenaline buzzing, remember what the data says. Forget the “should’ve.” Play the shot that keeps your round alive. Because the best approach shots aren’t always the flashiest. They’re the ones that add up quietly… to lower scores, steadier rounds, and smarter golf.